+84 (24) 3200 3356Vietnam Robusta Coffee Market Update – June 2025
Written by Jennie
June 18th, 2025
Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing two very different trends: while exports are booming, domestic prices have dropped significantly. According to Hanfimex’s latest report, June 2025 brings both challenges and opportunities for coffee producers, traders, and buyers.
Export Performance Remains Strong
In May 2025, Vietnam exported 170,963 tons of coffee, valued at nearly USD 1 billion. This marks a sharp increase compared to May 2024, with export volume up 82.2% and export value rising 145.8%. The average export price reached USD 5,849 per ton, reflecting high global demand.
For the first five months of 2025, total exports reached 871,000 tons, bringing in over USD 4.8 billion — up 5.1% in volume and 31% in value compared to the same period last year.
Even though the total volume in the first 8 months of the 2024/2025 crop year dropped by 6.4%, the export value still increased by 57.5%, proving that prices have remained strong despite smaller volumes.
Domestic Prices Decline, Farmers Hold Back
While exports are rising, domestic prices have dropped sharply. From over VND 130,000/kg at the beginning of May, prices fell to around VND 112,000/kg by mid-June. As a result, many farmers have chosen to delay selling in hopes of a market recovery.
Global Supply Outlook: Recovery in Progress
On the global stage, supply is showing signs of recovery. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is forecast at 65 million bags (+0.5%), while Vietnam is expected to reach 31 million bags (+6.9%). These increases suggest that global coffee supply is rebounding, which could impact prices later this year.
In terms of stockpiles, Robusta inventories on ICE dropped to a one-month low of 5,177 lots, helping support Robusta prices. Meanwhile, Arabica inventories decreased slightly after reaching a 5-month high in May, now at 837,524 bags.
Outlook for June–July 2025: Volatile but Watchful
The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by several global factors:
– Tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global shipping routes and raise fuel prices.
– A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Houthi activity may raise freight costs.
– Investors are watching U.S. trade negotiations and the G7 Summit in Canada, where key economic discussions may affect commodity markets.
– Central banks are expected to maintain current interest rates, which may add some temporary stability.
Robusta Outlook:
Strong short-term momentum due to tighter supply, but the outlook will depend on inventory trends and Brazil’s harvest progress.
Arabica Outlook:
Still under pressure due to large stockpiles, though the situation could change if production drops in the next off-year cycle.
At Hanfimex, we are committed to tracking the latest market dynamics and supporting our global partners with reliable coffee sourcing solutions.
Need insights or supply support for Q3?
👉 Contact our team today to stay ahead of the market.
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