+84 (24) 3200 3356Cashew Market Report: Key Trends and Price Forecast for Q3 2025
Written by Jennie
JULY 16th, 2025
Cashew Market Update: Sluggish Demand and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Prices
The global cashew market continues to face challenges as weak demand and lingering trade uncertainties keep prices under pressure. According to the latest data, Vietnamese cashew exports to the US have declined significantly, with May 2025 shipments down 27% year-on-year. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends shaping the industry:
1. Price Trends: Moderate Declines for Whole Grades
– Whole cashew grades (WW320, WW240) saw a 2% drop in FOB Vietnam prices this week, reflecting subdued buying activity.
– Broken grades (WS, LP) remain relatively stable but face tight near-term supply.
– Market sentiment is cautious as buyers adopt a “wait-and-see” approach amid fluctuating trade policies.
2. US Demand Weakens Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The US, a major importer of Vietnamese cashews, has reduced forward purchases due to unresolved tariff policies. Key developments include:
– A proposed 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, pending final confirmation by August 1.
– US import volumes fell 24% in early 2025 compared to last year, with retailers buying only hand-to-mouth.
– Traders note that Q4 demand remains uncovered, suggesting potential volatility ahead.
3. European Market: Stable but Selective Buying
– European buyers are securing broken grades for prompt needs, while whole-grade prices align with Vietnam’s downtrend.
– Supermarket tenders are emerging, signaling gradual restocking.
4. Outlook: Will Prices Rebound?
– Short-term: Prices may remain soft until tariff clarity emerges.
– Long-term: If US tariffs solidify at 20%, Vietnamese exporters may need to adjust strategies, potentially shifting focus to other markets like the EU or Middle East.
Key Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers
✅ For Buyers: Monitor tariff updates—delayed purchases could lead to tighter Q4 supply.
✅ For Sellers: Diversify markets and prepare for potential price adjustments if US demand stagnates.
Stay updated with Hanfimex Group for real-time cashew market insights and trading opportunities.
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