+84 (24) 3200 3356Cashew Market Monthly Report: Short-Term Drop or Start of a Trend?
Written by Jennie
June 16th, 2025
Vietnam’s cashew sector continues to show strong trade activity, but recent market developments suggest a possible short-term correction in kernel prices — raising questions about whether this dip marks the start of a larger trend or just a temporary phase.
Imports Surge in Volume and Value
According to VINACAS, Vietnam imported 290,575 tons of raw cashew nuts (RCN) in May 2025, a 16.3% year-over-year increase. The average price reached USD 1,512.83/ton, up 32.7% compared to May 2024. Cumulatively, RCN imports for the first five months of 2025 hit 1.37 million tons, with a total value of USD 2.14 billion — a remarkable 52.07% increase in value from the same period last year.
Cambodia remained Vietnam’s largest supplier, delivering 125,843 tons in May alone, followed by Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. While imports from Cambodia rose 23.94% in volume and 47.16% in value over the five-month period, shipments from Côte d’Ivoire dropped over 56% in volume year-over-year.
Exports Hold Steady Despite U.S. Slowdown
Cashew kernel exports remained solid. In May 2025, Vietnam exported 82,984 tons of kernels, earning USD 564.69 million, matching last year’s volume but with a 23% rise in value. Total exports for January to May 2025 reached 282,873 tons, worth USD 1.93 billion.
China and the United States continued to be the main buyers. However, while Chinese imports increased 11.1% in volume and 29.6% in value, U.S. demand weakened sharply — down 34.7% in volume and 15.6% in value, mainly due to ongoing tariff policies.
Kernel Prices Under Pressure — But May Rebound
Since late May, the cashew kernel market has entered a short-term downtrend. Bids from EU and U.S. buyers have fallen to USD 3.10–3.15/lb, with some processors even offering prices slightly lower due to cash flow stress and port congestion at Ho Chi Minh City.
However, many BRC/SMETA-certified processors are holding firm offers in the USD 3.18–3.25/lb range. Their stance is supported by the high cost of raw cashew and expectations that demand — especially from the U.S. — will rebound once tariff announcements are made in early July.
Uncertainty Ahead: Tariffs, Logistics & Geopolitics
Market watchers are now eyeing the U.S. tariff decision expected around July 9. A positive shift could trigger a surge in purchases during Q3 and push prices upward again.
In addition, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising fuel prices are causing uncertainty in global shipping. Logistics costs are already climbing, further complicating trade flows.
Conclusion
The current softening of cashew kernel prices appears to be a short-term correction, not a structural downturn. Processors and buyers alike should watch July’s U.S. tariff decision closely — it may signal the next big move in global cashew trade.
Prepared by Hanfimex Group – June 2025
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