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Vietnam Black Pepper Export Forecast 2022

“The pepper export price is forecast to continue at a high level this year.”

Written by Milcah

Vietnam Black Pepper Export Forecast 2022

March 03, 2022

Global pepper production overview 2021

 

In 2021, global pepper production was estimated to decrease by 3% year-on-year with total production reaching 574,000 tons. Vietnam continues to dominate the global pepper industry with 40% of output and over 60% of world exports.

Total export turnover reached 948.7 million USD, black pepper reached 792.1 million USD and white pepper reached 156.6 million USD. Compared to 2020, export volume decreased by 8.1% but turnover increased by 43.6%.

Brazil maintains production at 95,000 tons, while in Indonesia output has fallen by as much as 28%, from 77,000 tons in 2020 to 55,000 tons in 2021. Other countries such as India, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia had increases in output but were negligible at 9%, 9%, and 8%, respectively.

Global pepper production over the past 50 years has sustained growth. Although in the last two years, the social situation and freight rates have become a major barrier in trade, causing the pepper industry to slow down somewhat, the supply output in other countries remains stable, ensuring the maintenance of exports.

World Pepper production forecast in 2022

The export price is forecast to maintain a high level this year because there might be a shortage if the conditions for production are not favorable.

Pepper harvest crop in countries in 2022

Based on the general assessment from the market and analysis from leading experts, this year’s pepper crop will yield lower than the previous year due to the influence of weather and pests. Accordingly, the main pepper exporting countries in the world have the following harvest time.

Pepper harvest crop in Vietnam in 2022

Most of the main pepper growing areas in Vietnam have harvests fall between February and May. Thus, in just over a month, Vietnam will enter the biggest pepper harvest crop of the year. This is also the time when trade activities are seen to be more active, which will directly affect the price of pepper exports.

Vietnamese producers are likely to face a shortage in raw pepper for processing and export in 2022 due to global undersupply, according to a representative from the International Pepper Community (IPC).

Some industry experts believe that Vietnam’s pepper prices will increase from 25% to 30% compared to 2021. Explaining this, they think that production this year will decrease, shrinking output, causing demand to be greater than supply, leading to shortages of goods in consumption in many countries. Besides, there are restrictions on the transport of goods and freight rates, pushing up the price of pepper.

According to the forecast of the main pepper harvest crop in Vietnam, the pepper production in most regions decreased, including Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Dong Nai areas.

Factors affecting Vietnam’s pepper harvest crop in 2022

As for shipping, the goods are always disrupted and as a result cause port congestion, causing Asia -Europe freight rates to always hang high. The number of ships waiting for docks has not decreased, prompting some carriers to cancel upcoming routes and others to switch capacity to Asian routes.

In terms of the epidemic, WHO has set a target of 70% of the world’s population to be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of 2022. In Vietnam, it is expected that in the first half of 2022, there will be an additional 100 million doses of vaccine. Thus, after 2 years affected by COVID-19, the world is gradually adapting and moving towards new developments, recovering the economy, and opening up trade opportunities in the coming time.

Pepper market trends in 2022

The Export-Import Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) also said that pepper export prices will continue to remain high in 2022. In traditional export markets such as the United States and Europe (EU), the UAE, pepper prices are forecasted by many optimistic signals. Especially in the U.S. market, although the United States increased pepper imports from some producing countries such as Indonesia, India, China, the number of pepper imported from Vietnam still accounts for the largest proportion.

The US is the largest pepper importer of Vietnam, and the recovery of the economy will lead to an increase in pepper demand. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s pepper has a competitive advantage compared to products of other countries such as Indonesia, India, and China.

Source: Sybilagri

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